A new study has found that the decarbonization scenarios adopted by a number of oil and gas giants are “not consistent” with the goals of the Paris Agreement aimed at limiting global warming.
The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, is an analysis of six emission scenarios by three European energy giants Equinor, BP and Shell, as well as scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency.
The experts compared these different paths to the scenarios outlined in a special report by the UN Climate Change Panel to limit average global warming to 1.5°C.
Analyzing all of these scenarios, the team assessed the extremes and those that would be fixed at the end of the century in each case. Also analyzed were fundamental changes in the energy sector, the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, which may allow one or another scenario to achieve or not achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement.
“Most of the scenarios we analyzed are not in line with the Paris Agreement because they cannot limit warming well below 2°C and will exceed 1.5°C,” said Robert Berisha of Climate Analytics, one of the key contributors to the study.
He emphasized that “transformation in the energy sector is necessary” to achieve the goals, “and decision makers need a firm and transparent scientific assessment”, as stated in this study.
According to the Equinor Rebalance scenario, warming will reach 1.73°C by 2060 compared to pre-industrial levels, the study says.
The BP Rapid scenario would lead to warming by 1.73°C by 2058, while the Net Zero scenario would increase it by 1.65°C.
Equinor declined to comment on the matter and BP did not respond to a request for comment.
Source: AFP