"Economist"The poor countries of the global South are most vulnerable to political and economic shocks.

The British magazine The Economist published an article by writer Jan Bremer, in which he believes that the expected global conflict will not be between China and the United States of America, and India will be the biggest challenge.

The writer’s article stated that it was widely believed that the next great power conflict would be between the United States of America and China, but that India, according to Bremer, would be the leader of the South at a time when it was now an ally of the United States.

The political scientist continues that one should not worry about the conflict with China, but one should really worry about the debt crisis in the developing world.

On closer inspection, we can see that the greatest threats and challenges in the next decade will come from tensions between the West and the global South, which includes vast areas of Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. The writer emphasizes that there is no cold global war between China and the United States of America, since hidden threats in the 20th century will not cancel interdependence in the 21st century, because the trust between Washington and Beijing, although at a low level, the American leadership is aware that the country China still needs China to succeed, and the closest allies of the United States of America in Europe, Asia and America are completely unwilling to participate in the great power struggle. very important for their future.

The destabilization of China will lead to mutual and assured economic destruction as Beijing remains Washington’s largest trading partner, largest supplier of goods, and third largest export market. The United States, in turn, remains China’s largest trading partner and largest export market. Xi Jinping understands that the CCP’s monopoly on domestic political power depends on whether it lives up to the expectations of the Chinese people, and Beijing needs to maintain strong trade relations with the European Union, the United States of America to further improve the quality of life. and Japan, which together account for 40% of China’s exports.

Therefore, the interdependence between East and West makes them in the same boat and has a common purpose. Unfortunately, however, the poorer countries of the global south are most vulnerable to political and economic shocks, according to Bremer, as India is expected to become the most populous country in the world by next year, and India and others like it risk becoming a source of millions of migrants and refugees. in the next decade, exacerbating global turmoil as supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates and high inflation, along with economic slowdowns and reduced remittances, pave the way for this decade’s emerging world debt crisis.

And this despite the fact that the cross-border flow of ideas, information, people, money, goods and services has dramatically reduced the wealth gap between rich and poor countries, creating a “global middle class” in countries whose income is five times the poverty line, established by the World Bank.

The author believes part of the blame for this lies with the Corona virus epidemic, which has embarrassed heavily indebted poor countries, with the World Bank warning that 58% of the world’s poorest countries are “either already in debt crisis or at high risk of becoming indebted”. followed by middle-income countries.

In addition, poor countries are less willing than rich countries to seek to reduce the damage from climate change, and this is especially true in Africa and the Middle East, where rising temperatures are increasingly testing human strength, as well as in Central America, which is already mired in growing poverty. and crime.

In the coming years, richer countries will respond to these crises with predictable and short-sighted measures designed to protect themselves. Fear of high inflation and stagnation will deter policymakers in the US and Europe from major investments in emergency response and debt restructuring elsewhere, while fears over the threat of a Ukraine conflict will distract Western leaders from ongoing conflicts and crises in Afghanistan, Yemen and elsewhere countries. , under When will climate change mitigation plans focus on natural disasters and IDPs?

Western-led institutions such as the International Monetary Fund will have to make difficult choices about where to invest resources that are becoming scarce due to a growing number of domestic emergencies.

In response, poor countries will find a way, as a united block within international institutions, to ask for more help, or they will break the consensus by creating conditions for more economic and political instability within their borders, more violence and forced migration.

In this volatile environment, India will take its place as the leader of the global south, and while it now acts as an ally of the United States of America, there are many enticing business opportunities in its efforts to contain Beijing’s rising influence. from China and Russia, which are hard to ignore. And when it comes to trade, technology and climate change, India has a lot in common with the developing world. How will the government of Narenda Modi respond in the coming years to the increasingly serious economic difficulties that the country will face? The current rapprochement between Washington and New Delhi may be in full swing.

To cope with all these difficulties in the next decade, Western countries will have to coordinate plans as much as possible, and rich countries will have to invest generously in global stability, whether it be debt forgiveness, technology transfer or climate change adaptation programs. Is cooperation with Beijing possible in the context of the needs of the global south? So far it sounds like an empty dream. But as the world’s largest creditor, China has more to lose than the US and its allies from emerging market turmoil. After all, constructive engagement between East and West may seem like the only way to save the Global South from the coming collapse.

Source: Economist

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