"It will end in negotiations"German experts evaluate scenarios for overcoming the Ukrainian crisis

A number of German experts confirmed in an interview with the newspaper “Der Tagesspiegel” that any struggle sooner or later ends at the negotiating table, the same applies to the Ukrainian crisis.

The experts shared their expectations about how the crisis will develop further, as well as when and in what form a peaceful settlement of the conflict will take place.

The newspaper asked two questions about the experts’ beliefs, which sounded as follows: “In what form can this happen and when?”, to these questions the three experts answered the same way.

For his part, the head of the European Council on Foreign Relations, Mark Leonard, believes that a frozen conflict will not allow for the full sovereignty of Ukraine, so it is necessary to look for mediators who can seat the warring parties at the negotiating table.

Leonard added: “Many are suitable for this role, from China to Brazil and from Turkey to France, but Moscow and Kyiv should also come up, as well as Ukraine’s most important allies, but the participants in the conflict do not trust all candidates.”

In addition, the fighting is still at a stage where Russia and Ukraine are convinced that they can achieve more through military equipment, and not at the negotiating table, and this will continue until at least one or both sides change your opinion on this matter. Otherwise negotiations are not possible.

The expert pointed out that while the Kremlin is coping with military difficulties by escalating the situation, Kyiv is not ready to make territorial concessions in return.

According to the expert of the German Foundation for Science and Politics Sabina Fischer, all countries can contribute to the search for a negotiated solution, and, according to her, within the process of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, the member countries of the Union can help it recover, as well as heal.

Transatlantic allies can help too, Fischer added. It is also necessary to give security guarantees to Kyiv and all other countries that are afraid of Russia.

At the same time, she added, it is necessary to resume the work of the arms control system at the international level and within the framework of the European security project, and the UN can play an important role by becoming a platform and mediator, for example, the creation of an international peacekeeping unit in Ukraine.

Fischer pointed out that China, Brazil, South Africa, India and other countries can help curb Russia’s “aggressive policy”, but at the moment all this can only be discussed under certain conditions, since the right moment for negotiations has not yet come.

She added that Ukraine cannot accept the status quo, otherwise it will endanger its existence, and Russia, or rather the Kremlin President Vladimir Putin, is not ready to seek a negotiated solution, on the contrary, Moscow will use all means to achieve its goal. i.e. “destruction of independent Ukraine”.

For Der Tagesspiegel journalist Malte Lemming, a shift from a military solution to a diplomatic one is possible only if both sides no longer hope to achieve regional gains, indicating that the negotiations are the result of exhaustion, but at this stage there are already some Limited Agreements, such as the exchange of prisoners of war, the establishment of humanitarian corridors, and the supply of grain and fertilizer through the Black Sea.

Lemming referred to the role of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well as UN Secretary General António Guterres as mediators in these issues, stressing that the fewer participants in future negotiations, the greater the chances for their success.

He added: “It would be better to hold a summit between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden with the direct participation of Ukraine.” and such a summit can easily fail, but it’s worth it.

Source: Ino TV

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