The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in a recent report, disclosed its expectations regarding the performance of the Russian economy and the economies in which the Bank implements programs for 2022 and 2023.
In a bank report published today Wednesday on the state of the economy in the European region, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) improved its forecast for the performance of the Russian economy for 2022, as it expects the Russian economy to contract by 5% after previously a 10% decline was expected.
He worsened his forecast for 2023, suggesting that Russia’s GDP will fall by 3%.
The bank’s report states: “The negative impact of the sanctions on (economic) activity was severe, but not as severe as expected. On the one hand, this was the result of steps taken by the Bank of Russia (Central Bank of Russia) to prevent a financial crisis and (result) imposing limited sanctions on the (Russian) energy sector, which reflects the dependence of the parties imposing sanctions on Russian energy”.
The report added: “However, the impact on the non-oil sectors of the economy, especially sectors dependent on foreign imports, was strong. The economy is expected to contract by 5% in 2022 and another 3% in 2023. forecasts remain bleak for the medium term. In the absence of a peace agreement, this would lead to an easing of sanctions.”
The European Bank also improved its growth forecasts for the economies of the countries where the Bank operates programs to 2.3% in 2022, but lowered its growth forecast to 3% in 2023 due to a reduction in Russian gas supplies.
Here are the highlights from the EBRD report:
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has halved its forecast for Russia’s GDP for 2022 to 5% (a drop of 5%), and also predicts it will fall by 3% in 2023.
The impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy has not been as strong as expected due to the West’s dependence on Russian energy resources.
– The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development maintained its forecast for the fall of the Ukrainian economy for 2022 by 30% (down -30%).
– The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has lowered its growth forecast for the economies of the countries in which the bank implements programs for 2023 to 3% due to a decrease in Russian gas supplies.