Russian writer Roman Antonovsky, owner of the Sons of the Royal Family channel on Telegram, said that the situation in and around Taiwan is actually not at all the same as in Ukraine.
Although Taiwan, like Ukraine, falls under US military and political protection, it remains part of China in a cultural and political sense.
The writer noted that the authorities of Taiwan have never tried to remove everything Chinese from the life of its inhabitants and impose on them an alternative Taiwanese identity, as the authorities of Ukraine did in relation to everything Russian.
Antonovsky noted that there are two Chinese parts, each of which has gone its own way, but both understand that sooner or later they will be together.
He noted that in Taiwan, in addition to the Kuomintang nationalists who lost the civil war to the communists led by Mao Zedong and created a state on a neighboring island, there are groups advocating integration with People’s China.
The author emphasized that the Chinese have mastered the art of waiting, and their planning horizon is centuries, not five years. In their plans, Taiwan is the territory of China. You just need to wait a little, ten, twenty or even 50 years, and he will return, like Hong Kong and Macau, especially since Taiwan does not pose such a threat to China as Ukraine does to Russia.
More important point. The Chinese army has absolutely no experience in serious wars. In World War II, the Japanese defeated the Chinese with one hand. Then, reinforced by the war with the Americans, Vietnam easily withstood the onslaught of the Chinese. In Korea, the Chinese opposed the Americans with the support of the Soviet Union, the most powerful army in the world at that time. In the war with Japan during World War II, during the Korean War, and then in Vietnam, there was support from the Soviet Union, which at that time had the most powerful army in the world.
A Chinese military invasion of well-armed Taiwan and a possible clash with US military forces there could result in heavy casualties. Even a thousand deaths will shock Chinese society as a whole, because the life of any Chinese is considered priceless. In addition, the Russian military operation has brought about major changes in favor of China politically and economically, and, of course, any invasion of Taiwan could change this favorable situation.